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Date: Mon, 8 Jan 2018 12:52:45 GMT
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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To: solar@eu
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC

:Issued: 2018 Jan 08 1252 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU008
UGEOA 30512 80108 1252/ 9930/ 
10082 21082 30082 
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 08 Jan 2018 until 10 Jan 
2018
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jan 2018  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jan 2018  10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jan 2018  10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Solar activity is very low, without C-class or even B-class flares

reported for more than a week. We expect such a low activity to persist 
in
the coming days.
There were no Earth directed CMEs observed during last 24 hours, and the

solar protons are at background level.
The in situ observations (from DSCOVR satellite) indicate arrival of the

interplanetary shock wave at 05:55 UT this morning. The sudden increase 
of
the solar wind speed (from about 290 to 350 km/s) was observed
simultaneously with the increase of the density, temperature and the
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude (from about 6 nT to 15 nT). The

shock in the solar wind is probably related with the expected arrival of

the fast solar wind associated with the low latitude extension of the
northern polar coronal hole which reached central meridian late evening 
of
January 04.
The solar wind speed is slowly increasing and it presently amounts 360 
km/s
and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is  20 nT. The Bz component

turned negative about two hours ago and it presently amounts about -13 
nT.
If the negative value of the Bz component persists for a longer time
interval we can expect disturbed geomagnetic conditions (up to Kp=4).
The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet and we expect unsettled 
to
active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 013, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 80108 1252/ 07/// 
1//// 20700 3002/ 4//// 8//// 9//// 
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 

NONE
END

UGEOR 30512 80108 1252/ ///// ///// 
99999
USSPS 32404 06075 01132 01001 45519 0/101
USSPS 21305 06176 01132 91002 45724 0/101
USSPS 81202 07023 01142 01002 46520 0/101
UMAGF 30503 80108 1004/ 07060 1/005 20100 31111
UMAGF 31523 80108 0000/ 07006 1/002 21000 30111

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